Executive Dashboard

The eSAF market is entering a critical inflection period. With ReFuelEU 2% sub-mandates locked in for 2030 and the UK SAF Mandate now active, binding demand for certified eSAF is accelerating faster than supply.Key competitor HIF Global has delayed its Chile expansion by 12-18 months, creating a significant supply window that aligns with Phelan Phase 1 COD in H2 2028. British Airways' confirmed 50,000 tpa offtake commitment signals major airlines are now willing to commit long-term at RTFC-linked pricing — directly validating Phelan's €4,930/tonne commercial model.

EU ETS prices above €85/tCO₂ further strengthen the economics of eSAF vs. fossil jet fuel. Technology milestones from Johnson Matthey (94% FT selectivity) and Carbon Clean (95% capture rate) de-risk Phelan's production pathway. Primary watch item: Sasol/TotalEnergies JV announcement in South Africa warrants competitive assessment.